Not financial advice. It’s just me, a Bitcoin-first curmudgeon, pointing at the math and asking why it smells like perfume on a pig.
TL;DR
BitGo (BTGO) hit the NYSE with a ~$2.4B valuation after pricing above its range. The pitch: $400M revenue today(ish), and—wait for it—$120M EBITDA by 2028. That’s a two-year “trust me bro.” Cool. Meanwhile, Wall Street keeps finding new ways to sell paper exposure while bitcoin keeps doing what bitcoin does: exist without asking permission.
What actually happened
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Ticker: BTGO (NYSE)
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Offer: ~11.8M shares (plus greenshoe)
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Valuation: Just north of $2B–$2.4B on pricing
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Business: Institutional custody, trust, and prime brokerage; claims $104B AUC
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Backdrop: 2025’s IPO stampede stalled after the late-year face-plant. BitGo pushed through anyway.
The story they’re selling
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“First pure-play public custody” (true enough).
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“Unblemished security record” (good).
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“Massive upside from tokenization + institutions” (maybe).
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“$400M revenue, $120M EBITDA by 2028” (…future you is going to love these numbers).
Quick smell test (back-of-napkin, no investment bank fairy dust)
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Revenue multiple right now: If $400M is current and the cap is $2.4B, that’s ~6× sales in a choppy market for crypto infra. Not insane, but not “modest.”
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EBITDA goal by 2028: $120M implies ~30% margin on that revenue trajectory. Possible with scale, but custody fees compress as competitors pile in and regulators sharpen knives.
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Key risk: You’re buying IPO paper during a macro and regulatory mud fight, not sats that settle in 10 minutes.
What the maxi hears
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If you want “crypto exposure,” try bitcoin. If you want Wall Street exposure, buy an IPO.
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If the business execution is flawless, the stock can work. If not, the “valuation expansion” crowd will suddenly discover math.
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Self-custody beats custody narratives long-term. You don’t need a prospectus to move coins from A to B.
What would make BTGO actually elite
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Boring, recurring fee revenue with sticky clients that survive bear markets.
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Prove margin discipline while avoiding the “earnings by 2028” mirage.
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No security incidents (obvious, but one bad day nukes the premium).
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Product > press release: Shipping rails that everyday people and mid-market institutions can actually use—without a sales engineer summit.
The Bitcoin-first conclusion
I’m not anti-business. I’m anti-paper cosplay pretending to be Bitcoin. If you believe BTGO will crush execution and grow faster than custody fees compress—cool, roll the dice. I’ll be over here DCA’ing, holding my own keys, and letting Wall Street keep diluting “crypto” while bitcoin keeps being… bitcoin.
Download the app: Bitcoin-first, self-custody learning without the alt-hopium. Free on iOS & Android → LearnBitcoin.app